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For the modest fee of 2.90 lv., for our smaller items, and 4.90 lv. for the bulkier ones, we could gift wrap every item of your choice as a present. You can choose which products you want gift wrapped in the checkout, under the product image.

We have free delivery for the whole of Bulgaria. If you order until 4pm, your order will arrive on the next working day. If your order on Friday after 4pm and during the weekend, you can expect your order to arrive on Tuesday the following week.

Availability: Out of stock
Condition: Secong hand
Barcode: 9780753522370
Trade code: 56283
ISBN: 9780753522370
Category: Non-fiction All Books

Dan Gardner | Future babble

Price 26.90 lv. (€13.75)
This product is second hand.
  • In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

    In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by Professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
  • • Language: English
    • Format: 12.5 x 20 cm
    • Volume: 320 pages
    • Cover: paperback
    • Year of issue: 2012


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